Week 3: Chicago vs. Minnesota Preview

By Brett | Permalink | 1 comment | September 23rd, 2006 | Trackback

What the hell is going on in the NFC North? The Bears –the Bears– have the NFL’s highest rated passer through two weeks, already have 2 TDs of over 40 yards, and have scored a combined 60 points in their first two games of the season. Minnesota, a team that’s known for winning (or losing) games 34-31, has won two low scoring, defensive battles, that have featured their newfound power running game.

Both teams come into this game at 2-0. If Chicago wins, they’ll be in the driver’s seat in the division. All three of their wins would be against division rivals, and they’ll be looking at pretty easy schedule for the next couple months. If Minnesota wins, they’ll prove they’re a true playoff contender, with a very legitimate shot of knocking Chicago off as the division champ.

Minnesota’s 3 Keys to Victory
1. Work that left side. In both on Minnesota’s wins this season, they’ve pounded the ball with RB Chester Taylor behind LG Steve Hutchinson and LT Bryant McKinnie. They have a huge size advantage over Chicago’s undersized D line and LBs, and should be able to overpower them. If they can get Chester Taylor 30+ carries, that’s going to be a big advantage for the Vikings.

2. Take care of the football. In 11 games as a starter going back to last season, Brad Johnson is 9-2. During that stretch, he’s only thrown 5 INTs. The guy just doesn’t turn the ball over. Brad Childress has brought a more disciplined approach than predecessors Denny Green and Mike Tice, and he understands that taking care of the ball is going to help this team win games.

3. Get a pass rush. Minnesota’s defensive line is one of the best in the NFL, even without DE Erasmus James, who is out for the season. Last week, the Bears did a great job of protecting QB Rex Grossman, who had a career day. If Kevin Williams and crew can get in Grossman’s face, they should be able to force him to make some bad throws into coverage. In spite of Grossman’s great stats thus far, his decision making is still questionable at times, especially when the opposing team has been able to bring the heat.

Chicago’s 3 Keys to Victory
1. Get on the scoreboard first. Scoring first and jumping out to a lead will accomplish two things for the Bears. First, it will set the stage to take Minnesota’s ground game out of the picture in the second half, when it will cause the Bears D the most trouble. Second, if they can build a lead, it will allow the Bears’ pass rushers (9 sacks in 2 games) to get after Brad Johnson, who was sacked 5 times last week.

2. Find some balance on offense.
There’s been nothing doing on the ground so far for the Bears. Minnesota’s secondary and pass rush are much better than Green Bay’s and Detroit’s, so we’re not expecting to see Rex Grossman lighting this team up in the air. If the Bears want to slow down Minnesota’s D line, they’d better get something going on the ground. Expect to see RB Cedric Benson in the game in the 1st Quarter.

3. Get big plays on defense.
The Bears defense is too small to go mano-a-mano with Minnesota’s O line for 60 minutes. Their defense is predicated on getting big, game changing plays — sacks, interceptions, fumble recoveries– that set their offense up with great field position. If they can get a big play or two, it’s going to help keep Minnesota from settling into a rhythm on offense.

Prediction
If the game turns into a low scoring slugfest, the Vikings will have the advantage. If it turns into a track meet, the Bears will have the advantage. Kind of weird of a weird role reversal there. Minnesota has played great ball so far, and the Bears are going to need to bring their ‘A’ game if they want to get out of the Metrodome with a win. The Bears are healthy, focused, and playing with purpose right now. With that in mind, we’re going Bears 21-17.

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