Week 12 Preview: Bears vs. Pats

By Brett | Permalink | No Comments | November 22nd, 2006 | Trackback

We haven’t done a Bears preview post in a while, and with the Thanksgiving games looking less than compelling (with the exception of Denver/KC, which we’re not talking about because we’re bitter as hell that the only game worth watching tomorrow is on the goddam NFL Network), we figured this would be a good time to talk about the biggest game of the week.

What’s at Stake
Both teams are in the driver’s seat in their respective divisions, and given the fact that the Bears have a three game lead over other NFC playoff contenders, one could argue that there really isn’t much at stake in this one. The Pats have lost two of their last three, though, and haven’t been great at home this season. They need a win to keep pace with the other AFC divisional leaders.

Chicago is in the midst of playing three straight road games. After winning the first two, you’d think that they’d be pretty satisfied going 2-1 before heading back to Soldier Field. However, the Bears are going to need to beat some good teams this year –the only halfway decent teams they’ve beaten are the banged up Giants, the banged up Seahawks, and the Vikings– if they’re truly going to be considered an elite team.

Our keys to victory, after the jump.


Pats 3 Keys To Victory

1. Spread ‘em out, and run the ball. Since defensive leader Mike Brown was lost for the season four games ago, the Bears are giving up 137 yards per game on the ground. The Cover 2 scheme that they run is not conducive for stopping big, powerful runners, and the Pats have two of them in Corey Dillon and Lawrence Maroney. The Pats can take advantage of this weakness by using multiple receiver sets to get the Bears into their nickel package, and then running the ball straight at them. The Pats will have a great chance to win this one if they run the ball 25 times or more.

2. Exploit favorable match-ups in the slot. Bears nickel CB Ricky Manning Jr. will be serving a one game suspension this week for his role in an assault during the off-season. That will leave safeties Todd Johnson and Chris Harris on the field for passing downs. If the Pats go to four or five wide sets, they should be able to get Johnson or Harris –neither of whom are great cover guys– locked up on quicker, faster receivers. With the brand spankin’ new field turf that’s been installed in Gillette Stadium, this is a huge advantage for the Pats.

3. Confuse the hell out of Rex Grossman. Since the Arizona game, teams have been coming after Grossman like crazy. He still hasn’t shown that he can consistently make smart decisions when pressured, and he just doesn’t have enough experience yet to have a great grasp of reading defenses. No one is better at throwing multiple looks at a quarterback than New England. Expect them to try to rattle Grossman. If they’re successful, it could be a long day for the Bears offense.

Bears 3 Keys to Victory

1. Run the ball. We’ll keep saying this all season long, but if the Bears offense is going to be successful they have to commit to running the ball. This is something they’ve been doing a better job of in recent weeks, but Ron Turner may find it difficult to stay with the run game against a stout New England defense. Even if they don’t have much success with it early, staying with the run will be critical to keeping the defense honest and preventing them from tee-ing off on Grossman.

2. Work the play-action game and stretch the Pats downfield. Last week we saw the Bears get away from the downfield passing game a little bit. Receivers Bernard Berrian and Mark Bradley, while not particularly well known or experienced, are great downfield weapons and have the advantage in one on one match-ups vs. the Pats undermanned and overmatched secondary. The key will be making sure Grossman has enough time to set and throw, which is where the play-action comes into the mix. Look for the Bears to try to exploit the Pats down the field early on.

3. Get pressure with the front four. This is something that Bears have been doing a fantastic job at this year. Tom Brady gets rid of the ball so quickly and reads defenses so well that blitzing is a risky proposition against the Pats. The Bears will need to generate a pass rush with their D line, particularly to protect Johnson and Harris in coverage. This would be an ideal week for Tommie Harris to come back to life, after being held without a sack for the last few games.

Prediction
Most observers think that this will be a low scoring game, since both teams are strong defensively. Not us. We think both offenses will be able to exploit the respective weaknesses of each defense, making for a high scoring ball game. While we’d love to see the Bears come out of this one with a win, the Pats are just a little too tough at Foxboro late in the season. We’re gonna go 31-26 Pats.

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